Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Green House Effect:

CO2 production from increased industrial activity (fossil fuel burning) and other human actions such as cement production and tropical deforestation has increased the CO2 concentrations in the ambiance. Measurements of carbon dioxide amounts from Mauna Loa observatory show that CO2 has increased from about 313 ppm (parts per million) in 1960 to about 375 ppm in 2005. The current observed amount of CO2 exceeds the geological record of CO2 maxima (~300 ppm) from ice core data (Hansen, J., Climatic Change, 68, 269, 2005 ISSN 0165-0009).

Because it is a greenhouse gas, elevated CO2 levels will increase global mean temperature; based on an extensive review of the scientific literature, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes that "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations" [7].

Over the past 800,000 years [8], ice core data shows clearly that carbon dixoide has varied from values as low as 180 parts per million (ppm) to the pre-industrial level of 270ppm [9]. Certain paleoclimatologists consider variations in carbon dioxide to be a fundamental factor in controlling climate variations over this time scale.[1]

Monday, April 02, 2007

Weather forecasting
Although meteorologists now rely deeply on computer models, it is still relatively common to use techniques and conceptual models that were developed before computers were powerful enough to make predictions accurately or efficiently. Many of these methods are used to resolve how much skill a forecaster has added to the forecast. Similarly, they could also be used to determine how much skill the industry as a whole has gained with emerging technologies and techniques.

Persistence method
The persistence method assumes that conditions will not change. Often summarized as "Tomorrow equals today". This method works best over short periods of time in stagnant weather regimes.

Extrapolation method
This assumes that the systems in the atmosphere propagate at similar speeds than seen in the past at some distance into the future. This method works best over short periods of time, and works best if you take diurnal changes in the pressure and precipitation patterns into account.